Shell forecasts refining margin of $42 per barrel — The Guardian
Shell forecasts that in July–September 2026, the profit margin of its oil refineries will amount to $42 per barrel of fuel produced. This is significantly higher than $24 per barrel in the second quarter and the previous high of about $28 recorded in mid-2022, The Guardian reports.
Fuel shortage increased margins
The company attributes the margin increase to the rapid rise in prices of oil products, particularly diesel fuel, relative to the cost of crude oil. According to the publication, fuel supplies declined due to shutdowns of oil refineries in the Middle East and Russia that were damaged as a result of the war.
In the third quarter, the average Brent price was $85.60 per barrel, compared with $97.05 in the second quarter. At the same time, this was significantly higher than the average of $68.14 per barrel in the third quarter of the previous year. The diesel price premium over the global oil benchmark exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time.
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Gas prices and production
In August, the European gas price benchmark more than doubled year on year to €70.50 per megawatt-hour. In the second quarter, the average gas price exceeded €48 per megawatt-hour, while in the third quarter it approached €64.
Shell's gas production was also affected by the Iranian crisis: one of the company's key gas processing facilities in the Persian Gulf was seriously damaged. This reduced the pre-war production level of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by approximately one-third. Shell expects third-quarter production to range from 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, whereas it had previously forecast 570,000–630,000.
