Civic Coalition leads in Poland, but right-wing parties could have a majority — RMF24
In Poland, the Civic Coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk ranks first in a new poll, but the projected distribution of seats suggests a majority for right-wing parties in the Sejm. This is reported by RMF24, citing a United Surveys by IBRiS study for Wirtualna Polska.
Poll results
Some 30.6% of respondents are ready to vote for the Civic Coalition. The Law and Justice party ranks second with 18%, followed by Confederation with 14.1%.
According to these data, Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown, with 9%, the Left, with 7.4%, and Mateusz Morawiecki's Development Plus, with 5.7%, would also enter the Sejm. The Polish People's Party, with 4.4%, Razem, with 3.9%, and Poland 2050, with 0.5% support, fell below the 5% electoral threshold.
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Seat projection
Wirtualna Polska also published a projection of the distribution of parliamentary seats, prepared using the method of Jarosław Flis, a professor at Jagiellonian University. According to it, the Civic Coalition would win 190 seats in the 460-seat Sejm, Law and Justice would win 103, Confederation 77, Confederation of the Polish Crown 41, the Left 30, and Development Plus 19.
The Civic Coalition and the Left together would have 220 seats — 11 fewer than the minimum parliamentary majority of 231 votes. At the same time, Law and Justice, Development Plus, Confederation and Confederation of the Polish Crown could jointly receive 240 seats. RMF24 notes that the possibility of such an alliance is difficult to assess because of Law and Justice leader Jarosław Kaczyński's skeptical attitude toward both Confederations and the politicians who left his party and created Development Plus.
The poll was conducted on October 2–4, 2026, using a combined method of telephone and online interviews on a nationwide representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.
