Russia has sharply reduced its wheat exports via the Black Sea
Russian wheat exports via the Black Sea have fallen sharply. Moscow’s attempts to reroute grain shipments via other routes have not yet made it possible to compensate for the lost volumes.
“In the second ten-day period of September, Russia shipped only 347,000 metric tons of wheat, compared to 1.3 million metric tons during the same period in 2025. A total of 72,500 metric tons passed through Novorossiysk, compared to 696,000 metric tons a year earlier. Moscow is trying to shift part of the shipments to the Baltic Sea, northern ports, and the Far East. The “Ultramar” terminal in Ust-Luga has begun receiving grain. In September, requests for rail delivery to this terminal totaled about 260,000 metric tons,” the Foreign Intelligence Service reported.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, even at maximum capacity, this route can handle about 500,000 metric tons of grain per month. By comparison, the capacity of Russia’s southern ports exceeds 60 million metric tons per year.
“Russia’s southern ports, meanwhile, have a capacity of over 60 million metric tons per year. Last year, nearly 90% of Russia’s grain exports by sea passed through them. Russia is also attempting to export grain via Murmansk. Russian Railways (RZD) has approved the first shipment—40,000 metric tons from the Stavropol Krai,” intelligence sources stated.
The port of Murmansk is capable of accommodating large vessels and operates year-round. However, its distance from Russia’s main grain-producing regions significantly increases the cost of this route.
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service’s estimates, the additional costs amount to $18–25 per metric ton of grain. For a shipment of 40,000 metric tons, this means additional costs ranging from $720,000 to $1 million.
China has become another market through which Moscow is attempting to increase exports. “The volume of the ‘New Overland Grain Corridor’ has grown from 2.3 million metric tons in 2024 to 5.8 million metric tons in 2025. About 9 million metric tons are expected in 2026. But there are also significant constraints here: railway infrastructure, terminal capacity, tariffs, phytosanitary requirements—in particular, the lack of a phytosanitary protocol for Russian winter wheat—and Chinese quotas,” the report states.
The Foreign Intelligence Service explained that Russia cannot quickly create an alternative to the Black Sea system. This would require railway infrastructure, grain elevators, transshipment capacity, insurance, vessels, and regular buyers.
“There are clearly not enough such capabilities in the Baltic region and in Murmansk. The Chinese route also has its own limitations. Russia can distribute part of its grain via other routes. But it is not possible to build a new system of the same scale from them,” the intelligence report states.
Earlier, Germany called on Russia to lift the grain blockade due to the threat of famine.
India has, for the first time, proposed its own plan to help resolve the situation in the Black Sea. According to Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga, Ukraine currently has four proposals from international partners—India, Turkey, Egypt, and the U.S. Kyiv is ready for an energy and Black Sea ceasefire, but wants these two tracks to be linked.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has effectively rejected proposals for a mutual cessation of strikes on energy facilities in Russia and Ukraine. He also did not support the idea of halting strikes on ships in the Black Sea in exchange for stopping attacks on Russian oil refineries.
